According to PoliticsHome, several Conservative MPs are on “Lib Dem defection watch”. The report doesn’t specify how many, but it names Tory policy on the European Convention on Human Rights as the key trigger point.

Kemi Badenoch has already announced a policy review into whether or not the UK should remain in the ECHR — and if she decides in favour of withdrawal then some of her colleagues may do some withdrawing of their own.

The Lib Dems would need 25 defectors from the Conservative ranks to become the second largest party in the Commons. Badenoch would lose her status as the Leader of the Opposition as a result, which would be a humiliation that no Tory leader has suffered before.

But rather than retreat on the ECHR, she should use a defection crisis to her advantage. Firstly, the number of potential defectors is probably much lower than 25. Even the wettest Tory MP stood for a party that took Britain out of the European Union. To tolerate that, but draw the line at leaving the ECHR would strain credibility. To make it a resignation issue, they’d have to argue that the rights of British citizens can only be secured by submitting to the authority of a foreign court.

Secondly, Badenoch should remember that there are many more Conservative seats at risk from Reform UK than from the Lib Dems. That could start before the next general election if Reform-curious MPs see defection as the best way of saving their jobs. Allowing the Tory Left to dictate policy would come at risk of a much more damaging schism on the Right.

Thirdly, to have a hope of winning back the voters they lost between 2019 and 2024, the Tories have to show that they mean what they say about immigration. Making an example of rebellious MPs is one way of doing that. Before the 2019 election, Boris Johnson found himself in a similar position on Brexit. Voters only began to take him seriously when he removed the whip from the 21 MPs standing in his way. Badenoch needs to be equally ruthless.

But could she end up alienating as many voters as she wins back? That depends on the balance of tendencies within the Conservative electorate. In 2024, the Tories lost 4% of their 2019 vote to the Lib Dems, but 21% to Reform. Even in constituencies gained by the Lib Dems, the corresponding numbers were 9% and 19%.

It’s also worth noting the under-appreciated fact that Con to Lib Dem switchers aren’t that liberal when it comes to most issues. As James Breckwoldt shows using data from the British Election Study Internet Panel, their positions are a lot closer to Conservative voters than to other Lib Dem voters. It was anger with the performance and attitude of Tory governments, not a misalignment of values, that drove them away.

On the specific issue of immigration, research for Onward found that 53% wanted the numbers “cut a lot” and a further 22% “cut a little”. So far from losing more voters to the Lib Dems, this is an issue on which the Tories could and should win them back.

As for Badenoch herself, she too has more to gain than lose here. Indeed, one can argue that she has nothing to lose at all — so she may as well stand firm.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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